How much you’ll pay to heat your home this winter depends less on the weather than on which fuel heats your house — because in late 2026 the fuel markets are telling two opposite stories. Consumer groups project the average household will spend about $1,030 on heating from mid-November to mid-March, up roughly 9% from last winter’s $948 — but the natural-gas industry’s own forecast has gas-heated homes paying less than last year, around $497 for the season, while homes heating with oil sit on top of an oil-price spike that has Brent crude averaging $91 a barrel and diesel at $5.07 a gallon. The honest winter answer is a spread, not a number: heating with gas may cost a third as much as heating with oil this year. Here is what’s verified, what’s projected, and what you can control.
The Two Forecasts, and Why They Disagree
Two early-winter projections are circulating, and both deserve their exact framing:
- NEADA (the National Energy Assistance Directors’ Association) projects average household heating spending of about $1,030 for the season, up roughly $82 (~9%) from last winter. This is the number driving most headlines, and it is a projection — the articles reporting it draw on NEADA’s pre-season estimate.
- The American Gas Association projects that natural-gas heating bills will fall around 14% this winter, with gas-heated homes spending about $497 over the season versus $794 for homes heating other ways.
Both can be true at once, and the reconciliation is the story: natural gas is genuinely cheap at the wellhead right now, while anything tied to oil is genuinely expensive. Averages that blend the two make the total look milder than either household’s reality.
One more forecast is coming: the EIA’s official Winter Fuels Outlook publishes October 6, with authoritative fuel-by-fuel bill forecasts. Treat this guide’s projections as the early read and that as the scoreboard — we’ll say plainly what changed when it lands.
The 2026 Price Inputs (Verified)
The EIA’s September Short-Term Energy Outlook — the ground truth under both forecasts:
| Input | 2026 level | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Natural gas spot (Henry Hub) | $3.43/MMBtu average | Moderate — supports the falling-bill case |
| Brent crude | $91/barrel average | High — oil-linked fuels carry this |
| Retail diesel/heating oil | $5.07/gal 2026 average | Revised up 4.4% from the prior outlook |
That last row is the quiet shocker: EIA revised its diesel price outlook upward between editions — the oil spike strengthening, not fading. For the roughly oil-heated homes in the Northeast, delivered heating oil tracks diesel’s world, and this winter’s per-gallon bills are set to be painful. Propane sits between the poles; electricity depends entirely on your state’s rate, which is its own 2026 story — the national residential average is 18.31¢ per kWh and climbing as utilities pass through grid costs.
What Each Heating Fuel Looks Like This Winter
Natural gas: the best-positioned fuel. Cheap spot prices flowing through to retail bills is why the AGA can project falling costs. If you heat with gas and your utility passes spot through, expect relief.
Heating oil: the exposed fuel. Oil-heated households buy by the gallon in a market where diesel averages $5.07 and Brent sits at $91. Plan on filling the tank early, price-shopping dealers, and budgeting the most of any fuel type this winter.
Propane: middle of the pack. Retail propane tracks oil more than gas, so expect a higher-than-last-winter bill, softened by competitive local dealers.
Electric (furnace or heat pump): entirely a function of your rate. A heat pump delivering several units of heat per unit of electricity remains the efficiency outlier — an all-resistance home in a 48¢-kWh state will have the worst winter in the country, while a heat-pump home in a 13¢ state barely notices any of this.
What You Can Actually Control
The fuel markets are set; the amount of heat you buy is not. In order of payoff:
Seal and insulate first. Air sealing and attic insulation are the cheapest heat you’ll ever buy — our attic insulation guide covers payback math, and it shortens in expensive winters like this one is set up to be.
Program the thermostat for real. A consistent overnight and workday setback cuts heating use by double-digit percentages for zero cost — see what a smart thermostat actually saves.
Service before the cold. A furnace or boiler running dirty burns more for less heat; the annual service is in our home maintenance budget, and it’s the line that pays for itself this year specifically.
Oil-heated? Buy early and shop dealers. Per-gallon oil prices move with the oil market, dealers’ spreads vary widely, and pre-buy or budget plans shift your exposure. With the price direction pointing up, the calendar is on your side if you act before the first cold snap.
The Bottom Line
Plan around $1,030 for the season if you’re average, materially less if you heat with gas (AGA’s projection: $497), and materially more if you heat with oil — the early 2026 forecasts agree on the spread even where they disagree on the average, and the EIA’s price data backs the split: cheap gas at $3.43/MMBtu, expensive oil at $91 Brent and $5.07 diesel. The official Winter Fuels Outlook lands October 6 and will replace these projections with fuel-by-fuel forecasts; until then, the moves that pay are the ones you control — insulation, thermostat discipline, a serviced system, and for oil-heated homes, buying gallons before the cold does.
FAQ
How much will heating cost this winter?
The early projection is about $1,030 per household for the season (mid-November to mid-March), up roughly 9% from last winter — but the fuel split matters more than the average: the gas industry projects gas-heated homes at about $497 while oil-heated homes face a spiked oil market. The EIA’s official Winter Fuels Outlook on October 6 will settle the fuel-by-fuel numbers.
Why are heating bills going up if natural gas is cheap?
Because the average hides two opposite markets. Natural gas is moderate at $3.43/MMBtu and flowing through as falling gas bills, but anything oil-linked is expensive — Brent crude averaging $91 a barrel pushed diesel to a $5.07 2026 average, revised upward in the EIA’s September outlook. Oil- and propane-heated homes carry the increase that the headline average describes.
What is the cheapest way to heat a home in 2026?
A heat pump in a cheap-electricity state, by a wide margin — it delivers several units of heat per unit of electricity, and 13¢-per-kWh states make that combination unbeatable this winter. For existing systems, natural gas is the cheapest fossil fuel this season; heating oil is the most expensive per unit of heat.
How can I lower my heating bill before winter?
Seal air leaks and top up attic insulation (the fastest payback in an expensive winter), run real thermostat setbacks for nights and workdays, get the furnace or boiler serviced before the cold, and if you heat with oil, fill early and compare dealer prices. Together these routinely cut a winter bill by a fifth without touching comfort.